Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 03 2357 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several low level C-flares were
produced by either Region 826 (S03W10) or 830 (N14E64); the largest
of which was a C5.3 at 03/0737 UTC from Region 830. Region 826 has
decreased in area in the central part of the spot region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for an isolated X-flare from Region 826.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions were due
to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. On 05 December, minor storm periods
are possible due to CME activity from 02 December.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 55% | 50% | 45% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 101 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 008/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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