Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 December 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 03 2357 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several low level C-flares were produced by either Region 826 (S03W10) or 830 (N14E64); the largest of which was a C5.3 at 03/0737 UTC from Region 830. Region 826 has decreased in area in the central part of the spot region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance for an isolated X-flare from Region 826.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions were due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. On 05 December, minor storm periods are possible due to CME activity from 02 December.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
Class M55%50%45%
Class X20%15%10%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Dec 101
  Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        03 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Dec  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  008/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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