Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 15 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 822 (S08E41) produced two M-class flares, an M1.0 at 2200Z and an M1.4 at 1751Z, along with numerous C- and B-class flares. Region 822 continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The region has retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The remainder of the disk continues to be spotless.IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for 16 November, with a
chance for isolated active periods. The elevated levels are
expected due to a sector boundary crossing and a favorably
positioned coronal hole. Unsettled levels are expected for 17-18
November.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 100 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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