Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 13 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 822 (S06E66)
produced an M2.5 flare at 13/1451 UTC, and several C-class events in
the last 24 hours. This group is the only spotted region on the
solar disk and is still to close to the limb for a detailed
analysis.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 822 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The solar wind averaged
around 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating between +1 to -4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 088 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/008-008/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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