Viewing archive of Monday, 17 October 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 17 2205 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20 October).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Oct 078
  Predicted    18 Oct-20 Oct  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        17 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Oct  012/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  007/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 35%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Waxing Crescent

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