Viewing archive of Friday, 23 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 23 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 810
(N09W06) produced a single C1/Sf flare today at 0559Z. This region
underwent gradual growth during the period and is currently
depicting magnetic beta-gamma characteristics. Newly numbered
Region 812 (S01E73), was responsible for an eruptive prominence on
the east solar limb just prior to becoming a visible CSO beta
sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 810 has the complexity to produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A brief active period was observed at the Boulder magnetometer
between 23/0600Z and 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 083 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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