Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 03 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 805 (S11W17)
produced a B6 flare at 03/0410 UTC. There are no other regions with
spots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a C-class event from region 805.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Geomagnetic storming occurred between 03/0000 - 0600 UTC after a
period of sustained southward Bz. Solar wind speed showed a steady
decline with initial values around 675 km/s to day-end values around
550 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field at ACE declined
throughout the period, ending the day at about 5 nT. The greater
than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 September.
Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storming is
expected on 05 September due to the possible effects of transient
flow from the CME on 01 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on 06 September.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 074 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 024/033 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 022/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 008/015-012/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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