Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 28 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 803 (N11E27) produced the largest flare of the period, an
impulsive M1/Sf event that occurred at 28/1028Z. This region
underwent some decay of penumbral coverage during the period with a
delta structure materializing in the leading portion of this
reversed polarity spot group. A disappearing solar filament was
reported in the southwest solar quadrant, occurring between 28/0755
and 0946Z. The remaining spotted groups were quiescent over the
past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 803 is capable of producing further isolated
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for 29-31
August.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 090 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 005/008-005/008-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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