Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 16 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 797 (S14W10)
continues to show decay in sunspot area while maintaining a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 797.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active due to the
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into
geoeffective position during the latter half of 15 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on 17 August.
Activity should gradually decline on 18 August and should be quiet
to unsettled by 19 August as the coronal hole high speed stream
moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 076 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 075/075/080 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 012/020-010/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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