Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 20 2215 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activitiy is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Solar wind
data indicate the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal hole,
beginning at about 19/2300. The solar wind speed was approximately
525 km/s with a slight upward trend at the time of issue.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor
storming on 21 July as the coronal hole high speed stream continues
to be geoeffective. Conditions should decrease to predominantly
unsettled on 22 and 23 July.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 072 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 020/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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