Viewing archive of Friday, 24 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 24 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Flare activity
was limited to minor B-class x-ray events seen on the solar west
limb near S19. The source region for this activity is believed to
be from old Region 779 (S19 L=332). Region 780 (S08W30) underwent
continued decay and the region has become a simple BXO beta group.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The storm
conditions are due to a recurrent coronal hole. The associated
solar wind speeds have been elevated to near 500 km/sec throughout
most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. There
may be a slight chance of isolated minor storming conditions though
25 June due to the geoeffective coronal hole. Unsettled levels with
isolated active conditions are expected on 26 June as the coronal
hole wanes. Quiet to unsettled levels should return by 27 June.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 077 Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 030/048 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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