Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 23 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 780
(S08W14) underwent continued decay in sunspot area and activity was
limited to a single B-class flare. The remainder of the disk and
limb were quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
The storming conditions are believed to be due to a Co-rotating
Interaction Region, preceding the onset of a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated major
storm conditions may be possible during the period due to the
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 078 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 030/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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