Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 21 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 780 (S07E12) produced
an impulsive C2.1/Sf at 1804 UTC. No significant development was
observed on active regions and no new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 779 (S16W71) and 780 may produce C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained above high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days. Active and isolated
minor storm conditions are possible on day three (24 June) as a
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 083 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 003/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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