Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 17 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 763 (S14W10)
produced an M1.8/1B tenflare at 17/0239 UTC with associated type II
and type IV radio sweeps. Associated with this flare, a very faint
full halo CME was seen on LASCO imagery beginning at 17/0350 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
ranged from 650 km/s to 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for 18 May. Quiet
to active conditions are expected on 19 May as the faint full halo
CME may arrive late in the period. Unsettled conditions are
expected on 20 May.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 090 Predicted 18 May-20 May 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 17 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 018/033 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 010/020-012/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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