Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 May 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 17 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 763 (S14W10) produced an M1.8/1B tenflare at 17/0239 UTC with associated type II and type IV radio sweeps. Associated with this flare, a very faint full halo CME was seen on LASCO imagery beginning at 17/0350 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE ranged from 650 km/s to 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for 18 May. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 19 May as the faint full halo CME may arrive late in the period. Unsettled conditions are expected on 20 May.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
Class M40%40%30%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 May 090
  Predicted   18 May-20 May  090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        17 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  018/033
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 May  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  010/020-012/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

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