Viewing archive of Friday, 6 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 06 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 756 (S08W79)
produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/1128 UTC. This region continues to
slowly decay. Region 758 (S07E23) generated a more significant
flare, a C8/2f at 06/1705 UTC. Although smaller in x-ray output,
this flare was of long-duration and associated with a type II sweep
and an apparent Earth-directed CME. Both of these regions also
produced smaller flares over the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class activity is expected in Regions 756 and 758.
Another small M-class flare is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A small Sudden Impulse
(8 nT) was observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 08/1306 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. Increased
activity is possible on 08 and 09 May in response to the CME
discussed in Part IA. The field may also be affected by a coronal
hole high speed stream beginning on 09 May.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 110 Predicted 07 May-09 May 105/095/090 90 Day Mean 06 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 010/012-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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