Viewing archive of Monday, 11 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 11 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C1 x-ray event at 0253
UTC from Region 751 (S06W90). The remainder of today's activity
consisted of occasional B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (12-14 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period
until around 1500 UTC, after which conditions became unsettled to
active. Solar wind data show a sector boundary crossing at about
1440 UTC, followed by a gradual increase in solar wind velocity and
enhanced interplanetary magnetic field. This is consistent with
solar observations which indicate the presence of a favorably
positioned coronal hole just a few degrees behind a solar magnetic
polarity inversion line. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next two days (12-13 April) as
the high speed stream from the coronal hole should continue to drive
activity. There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods during
this time as well. Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled
with occasional active periods for the third day (14 April).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 088 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 020/025-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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