Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 22 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 745 (N12E43) grew
from 20 millionths to 110 millionths. Region 744 (S13W26) decreased
slightly in area and sunspot number.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 23 March. Expect quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 24 and 25 March.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 087 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 006/010-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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