Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 03 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. The
largest flare of the period was a low level B-class flare that was
observed on the solar northeast limb and occurred at 03/1504Z. A
reemergence of sunspots was observed in Region 739 (S03W16) during
the period, with a single umbra visible in each polarity. Region
740 (S07W37) underwent decay in sunspot area. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through 4 and 5 March. Isolated
active conditions are expected late on 6 March due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 077 Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 004/005-004/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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