Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 01 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There is
only one single, small sunspot on the visible disk. A series of
complex eruptions were observed on LASCO imagery beginning at
28/2330Z. These were likely backsided events, as there is no
apparent frontside source for this CME activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes. A high speed coronal hole stream
continues to buffet the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed ranged
from 600 - 700 km/s, but the IMF Bz was predominantly northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods through 03 March. Quiet levels are expected on 04
March as the high speed solar wind stream rotates out of a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 074 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 075/075/080 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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