Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 739
(S04E38) is a small and magnetically simple sunspot group, and is
the only spot group on the visible disk. A section of a large
prominence erupted off the southwest limb at around 27/1000Z. The
associated CME on LASCO imagery does not appear to be Earth
directed. Little else of significance was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. The disturbed periods are due to a large transequatorial
coronal hole, which is producing solar wind speeds generally ranging
between 500 - 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 28
February and 01 March. Quiet, with occasional unsettled periods are
expected on 02 March as the coronal hole high speed stream rotates
out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 076 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 010/020-008/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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