Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 734 (S05W34) produced a C4.9 flare at 2338UTC with an associated halo CME traveling at a velocity of approximately 900 km/s. Region 735 (S07W06) is the largest group on the disk but was stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M class flare from Region 735.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for 18 February due to a coronal hole. Activity should remain at unsettled to active levels for 19 February due to possible effects from today's CME. Conditions should decrease to unsettled on 20 February.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Feb 111
  Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        17 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%15%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

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