Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region
732 (N09E70, believed to be old Region 720) was numbered today and
was the source for the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray flare
that occurred at 06/0939Z. Analysis of the magnetic field structure
indicates a fair amount of complexity over a large are of plage
while the sunspot area coverage is currently meager. New Region 731
(S02E27) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 732 could continue the production of C-class
flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The active
conditions occurred between 06/0600 and 0900Z due to the associated
solar sector boundary crossing that was seen at the ACE spacecraft
at approximately 06/0500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storming for 7 February due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream. Predominantly unsettled conditions are
expected on 7-8 February as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 097 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 015/020-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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