Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 727
(S09E25) underwent decay today and appears to be a simple beta
magnetic spot complex. With the exception of a few low level
B-class flares the solar disk and limb were fairly quiescent today.
Region 728 (S14E66) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. An isolated C-class flare is possible from
Region 727.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods may be observed in the nighttime sectors at the higher
latitudes throughout the reporting period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 094 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/012-006/012-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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