Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to an M1 x-ray event at
0151 UTC, apparently from Region 720 which is now beyond the west
limb. Solar activity and background levels have declined
significantly during the past 12 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for another M-class flare from Region 720 during
the next 12 hours (through 24/1200 UTC). Activity should be very low
to low for the remainder of the forecast period (24/1200 UTC through
26/2359 UTC).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels for most of
the period. Solar wind data indicate the presence of a high speed
stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
3 days (24-26 January).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 096 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 023/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 015/015-012/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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