Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 January 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There were three C-class flares: a C3 at 0432 UTC from the west limb at S07, a C1 at 1245 UTC from the west limb at N14, and a C1 at 2053 UTC from the west limb at N15. The first flare was probably from old Region 719 which recently rotated around west limb, and the other two were probably from Region 720 which rotated off the disk today. With the departure of Region 720, Region 725 (S04W49) is now the largest group on the disk with an area of about 190 millionths. Region 725 has been growing steadily but so far has produced only minor flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is a chance for an M-class event, and a slight chance for a major flare event, from Region 720 during the next 24 hours (23 January). However, the likelihood for M-class or higher level events is expected to decline strongly for the 2nd and 3rd days (24-25 January) as the region gets further beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels from the beginning of the period (21/2100 UTC) through 22/0600 UTC. Since 0600 UTC conditions have been mostly unsettled. Solar wind signatures show a steady decline in velocity from around 950 km/s at the beginning of the interval down to about 650 km/s by 22/2100 UTC. Bz has been weak and density has been low since 22/0200 UTC up to the current time. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes continued to decline today and appear to have dropped below threshold of 10 PFU after 22/1755 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active tomorrow (23 January) in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Mostly unsettled levels with some active periods are expected for 24-25 January.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
Class M40%25%10%
Class X20%10%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jan 102
  Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        22 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  030/061
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  016/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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