Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 715 (N05E21)
produced an X1.7 at 01/0031 UTC with an associated Type IV radio
sweep and a Type II radio sweep (760 km/s). A Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME) may have been produced in association with this flare, but
could not be confirmed due to the unavailability of solar imagery.
Region 715 has decayed slightly in size and magnetic complexity, and
now maintains a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 715 may produce M-class and isolated X-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels all three days. Active
conditions are expected on 2-3 January from the effects of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar wind stream, and from
potential effects of CME shocks associated with the M-class flares
observed 30 and 31 December. Isolated minor storming mid-day on 3
January and into 4 January is possible from a CME shock associated
with today's X-class flare. Activity should subside late on 4
January to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 099 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 012/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 015/020-020/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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