Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 713 (S08E22)
has produced several B-class flares and retains its beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class event from
Region 713.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated period
of active to minor storm conditions observed at 21/1200 UTC. Solar
wind data indicated a possible co-rotating interaction region
signature during this period. Solar wind speed ranged from around
350 to 490 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating to -14 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated
periods of active conditions on 22-23 December due to coronal hole
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 24
December.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 101 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 015/020-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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