Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 700
(N04W93) produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C3
x-ray flare occurring at 18/1456Z. No sunspots are currently
visible as this region has rotated off the west solar limb. Regions
703 (N13E46) and 704 (N12E75) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions may be seen at higher latitudes on 20 and 21
November due to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 104 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 002/005-008/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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