Viewing archive of Monday, 15 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region
700 (N04W53) produced two C-class flares during the period, a C1.2
that occurred at 15/0626Z and a C1.5 occurring at 15/0925Z.
Magnetic analysis indicates that the region continues to carry a
beta-gamma classification while the sunspot area has more than
doubled since yesterday. Regions 699 (S13W10) and 701 (S15E17)
underwent a slight growth in magnetic structure although neither of
these groups showed any appreciable change in sunspot coverage. No
new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 700 has a slight chance of producing an isolated
M-class flare based on the magnetic structure of the region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
was slightly elevated today as the flux continues to drop to
background levels from the activity that ended on 13 November.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 106 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 110/115/120 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 005/008-004/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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