Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1.4 flare was observed at
05/0056 UTC from a spotless plage region near S11E75.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 091 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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