Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class flares. There are only two spotted
regions on the disk and both are small, stable, and magnetically
simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 090 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 005/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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