Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been low. A C1.5 flare occurred at
0110 UTC and was observed by SXI on the east limb at N05. A C1.0
flare was observed at 2002 UTC from Region 669 (S05W09). Region 669
also produced a B9.0 at 0349 UTC and a B9.7 at 1458 UTC. A 20
degree filament disappeared from N01W35 between 1324 UTC and 1519
UTC, but there was no obvious CME that could be associated.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period from 0600 to 0900 UTC. Solar wind data from ACE has
indicated a decrease in solar wind speed during the past 24 hours
from approximately 440 km/s to 380 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (09-11
September).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 125 Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 006/010-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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