Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A 9 degree long
filament disappeared from N22W30 sometime after 04/1625 UTC and
before 05/0536 UTC. The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed filament
movement on EIT at 05/0512 UTC and a CME on C2 around 05/0654 UTC,
which seems to correspond with this event disappearance. At this
time the event appears to be directed away from the Earth. Two new
regions were numbered today as Region 669 (S06E35) and Region 670
(S14E34).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind has
undergone some changes in the past 24 hours. Shortly before 05/0600
UTC the IMF Bz started southward oscillations and a gradual increase
in velocity and temperature began.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 103 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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