Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. An M1.4 flare was
observed from Region 663 at 31/0538Z. A Type II radio sweep with a
speed of 700 km/s, as well as a CME off the west limb, were observed
in association with the M flare. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 663 may still produce C class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to major storm levels. Bz at
ACE turned northward at 2230Z resulting in isolated major storming
early on 31 August. Unsettled to active conditions prevailed for
the rest of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
A glancing blow from the CME shock associated with today's M flare
may cause isolated active conditions on 3 September.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 088 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 100/110/110 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 027/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 024/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 010/020-005/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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