Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 656 (S14W77)
produced several major flares over the period. The largest flare
was an M2.4 flare at 17/1937 UTC. Region 656 decayed slightly as it
approached the west limb. A large filament erupted in the southeast
quadrant of the solar disk at 0500 UTC, observed on SOHO/EIT
imagery. Shortly thereafter a CME was observed emerging from the
southeast limb at 0630 UTC on LASCO imagery. The CME was not
directed towards Earth. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 656 may still produce major flare activity
before it crosses the west limb in the next day.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Isolated active
conditions are possible on day three (20 Aug) from the minor effects
of a small coronal hole that will reach geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 50% | 25% |
| Class X | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 135 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 125/115/115 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 008/008-005/008-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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