Viewing archive of Friday, 30 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Old
Region 652 (N08, L=348) has rotated beyond the western solar limb
although it was the source for the C-class flare activity seen
earlier in the period. Region 654 (N08W15) went unchanged in spot
area and magnetic complexity. Several lesser B-class flares were
produced from this region today. Region 655 (S09E71) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 654 is capable of producing C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A shock
passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 30/2030Z
and is believed to be in response to the very long duration C4 x-ray
flare that occurred at 28/0609Z. A sudden impulse of 25 nT occurred
at the Boulder magnetometer at 30/2115Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A transient passage
may occur late on 31 July into 1 Aug allowing for isolated active
conditions resulting from the long duration C2 x-ray flare that
occurred on 29 July. Quiet levels are expected to return late on 1
Aug.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 089 Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 012/015-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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