Viewing archive of Friday, 14 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 609 (S04E10)
produced several low B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The
region continues to show slight growth in white light area and
sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 609 has the potential to produce C-class events
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 110 Predicted 15 May-17 May 112/115/115 90 Day Mean 14 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 017/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 010/015-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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