Viewing archive of Monday, 10 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 10 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A disappearing solar
filament was observed on 10 May at approximately 0350 UTC from the
area of Region 606 (S09E40).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet through 12 May, then increase slightly to
unsettled levels on 13 May with the possible effects of the
disappearing solar filament of 10 May.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 093 Predicted 11 May-13 May 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 10 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 005/010-005/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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