Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 599 (N14E02)
produced a C3.1 flare at 27/0723 UTC with an associated Type II
flare with a speed of 732 km/s. LASCO imagery was not available, but
EIT imagery indicated significant dimming in the area of Region 599,
suggesting the existence of a CME. No significant development was
observed on regions on the visible disk, and no new regions were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 599 has the potential to produce C- and isolated
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active or minor
storm conditions possible on day three (30 April) from a CME
associated with the C3 flare observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 095 Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 27 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 005/008-005/008-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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