Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 582 (N14W09)
produced many B and C-class flares throughout the period. The
sunspot coverage decreased slightly today while the gamma magnetic
structure remained intact. Region 581 (S53W15) produced a C2 x-ray
flare at 31/2308Z that was preceded by a small filament eruption.
Region 587 (S13E37) showed a significant growth in sunspot area
during the past 24 hours although there was no flare activity noted
in this region today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 582 remains capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with periods of
unsettled conditions are anticipated throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 121 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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