Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 April 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels. A C1 x-ray flare occurred on the solar southeast limb at 17/1142Z. The source region for this flare is yet to be numbered due to its location on the limb. Region 591 (S16W65) continues to decay and was quiescent throughout the period. Region 595 (S09E55) produced low level B-class flares early in the period and has since shown decay to the sunspot area. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A period of active conditions occurred between 17/0300 and 0600Z at the middle latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Apr 098
  Predicted    18 Apr-20 Apr  100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        17 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Apr  008/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr  006/010-003/008-003/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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