Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. A C1 x-ray
flare occurred on the solar southeast limb at 17/1142Z. The source
region for this flare is yet to be numbered due to its location on
the limb. Region 591 (S16W65) continues to decay and was quiescent
throughout the period. Region 595 (S09E55) produced low level
B-class flares early in the period and has since shown decay to the
sunspot area. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A period of active conditions occurred between 17/0300 and 0600Z at
the middle latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 098 Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 006/010-003/008-003/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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