Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Solar x-ray flux
remained at background levels throughout the period. Region 588
(S17E01) maintained its size, and is now in a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. New Region 590 (S09W71) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 588 still has the potential to produce C-and
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
at ACE began a steady decline at 06/2300 UTC and is now at
approximately 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with periods of minor storm
conditions possible on day one and two (8-9 April). Two CMEs,
associated with solar flares on 6 and 7 April, may cause activity in
Earth's geomagnetic field. Geomagnetic activity should subside to
unsettled levels on day three (10 April).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 098 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 017/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 025/030-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
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