Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 582 (N14W09) produced many B and C-class flares throughout the period. The sunspot coverage decreased slightly today while the gamma magnetic structure remained intact. Region 581 (S53W15) produced a C2 x-ray flare at 31/2308Z that was preceded by a small filament eruption. Region 587 (S13E37) showed a significant growth in sunspot area during the past 24 hours although there was no flare activity noted in this region today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 582 remains capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with periods of unsettled conditions are anticipated throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Mar 121
  Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr  120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        31 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Mar  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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