Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 582 (N14E04) produced
numerous C-class flares. The largest of these was a C8/Sf at 29/2324
UTC. The Region continues to be the largest and most active group on
the solar disk. The other regions on the solar disk were stable and
quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 582 during the next three days (31 March - 2 April)
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speed continues to be enhanced due to a
high speed stream, but showed a continuing declining trend. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to quiet tomorrow (31 March). Conditions
should be predominantly quiet for the second and third days (1-2
April).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 127 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 012/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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