Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 March 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class events occurred, as the general level of activity increased. Region 577 (S01W14) generated a C5/Sf flare at 1426 UTC. More recently, an impulsive C7 limb flare appeared to have its origin from N15E90. This soon to appear region is showing a hot corona in x-rays and is also visible in H-alpha. Two new regions were assigned: Region 580 (S07W07) and Region 581 (S03E81).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue low. Isolated C-class flares are likely, with a slight chance of an M-class flare. Watch the northeast limb for the imminent arrival of a new bright region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through 27 March.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 120
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  005/010-005/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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