Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S13E07) produced minor flare activity, including a C1.3/Sf at 11/0215 UTC. Region 570 maintained its size, but increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm conditions. Earth's magnetic field continues to be under the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole with associated high speed solar wind. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storming possible, on 12-13 March. Activity should decrease on 14 March as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Mar 113
  Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar  110/110/100
  90 Day Mean        11 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  036/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Mar  020/045
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  018/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm45%45%40%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

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