Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 567
(S12W29) produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout
the period. The largest event was a C2 x-ray flare that occurred at
04/1007Z. A weak delta magnetic structure has become evident in a
cluster of intermediate sunspots near region center. An emerging
flux region, Region 569 (S11E34) with several rapidly developing
umbra, was assigned today. The remainder of the disk and limb were
quiet today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 567 is capable of producing an isolated low
level M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The high
speed solar wind stream has been on a steady decline since the
middle of the period (from 600 to near 450 km/s at the time of this
writing). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 098 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 008/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 008/010-007/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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