Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 567 (S12W29) produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout the period. The largest event was a C2 x-ray flare that occurred at 04/1007Z. A weak delta magnetic structure has become evident in a cluster of intermediate sunspots near region center. An emerging flux region, Region 569 (S11E34) with several rapidly developing umbra, was assigned today. The remainder of the disk and limb were quiet today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 567 is capable of producing an isolated low level M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The high speed solar wind stream has been on a steady decline since the middle of the period (from 600 to near 450 km/s at the time of this writing). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Mar 098
  Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar  105/110/110
  90 Day Mean        04 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  008/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  008/010-007/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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