Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 564 has
produced a number of minor C-class flares, the largest of which was
at C1.9 at 22/2000Z. Region 564 has grown considerably over the
past twenty four hours and may be developing a magnetic delta
configuration in its intermediate spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 564 is likely to produce more C-class flares.
If the polarity mixing in the intermediate spots continue, a chance
for isolated M-class flares will increase.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible from a weak recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 104 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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