Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There have been several B
and low-level C-class x-ray flares observed during the last 24
hours. The events were associated with Regions 547 (S08W70), 549
(N14E04), and 552 (S08W20). The largest region on the visible disk
is Region 551 (S06E26). This beta group has a 21 sunspot count and
is currently over 200 millionths of white light area coverage. A
new region was numbered today as Region 553 (S05E01).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
549 and 551.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Isolated periods
of active conditions are possible for 06 February.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 106 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 010/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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