Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were three C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, all from Region 551 (S05E51). This region
is small, but was bright and active throughout the day. Region 549
(N14E30) continues to be the largest group on the disk (220
Millionths), but could only manage to produce an occasional B-class
flare. The other active regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the
next three days (04-06 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data
indicate the presence of a high speed solar wind stream driven by a
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high
levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods during the
next three days (04-06 February) due to persistent coronal-hole
driven activity.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 120 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 028/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 015/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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